Dos Santos vs Cain Velasquez

The current betting odds are -175 Junior to +155 Cain Velasquez. Much of this is based off of their first meet up where Junior won via first round TKO against Cain Velasquez. For those who did not watch the fight, Junior clipped Cain within the first round behind the ear, thus ending the match. As such, Junior is coming in as the favorite.

Weighing the fighters. Junior is a great fighter and is a great striker. But Junior's match history hasn't demonstrated himself to be a really complete fighter. He's got great hands, and they're number one in the division for sure. But for the vast majority of his fights, he hasn't fought against any particularly strong wrestlers. In his entire UFC career, the only opponent that had any semblance of taking people down is Frank Mir and Roy Nelson. Neither of which are known to be particularly nasty wrestlers. One could count Shane Carwin as a good wrestler, but even now he's primarily known as a striker.

This cannot be said about Velasquez, who has fought nasty wrestlers and nasty strikers. In his outings, Velasquez has out wrestled Brock Lesnar who has very legitimate accolades in wrestling. He has also beaten the likes of Chieck Kongo and Antonio Silva.This is also the same guy who has managed to knock out Nogueira, which in itself is a huge accomplishment.

The problem with betting off of the first fight is the fact that we haven't seen the complete skill set of either fighter. Cain Velasquez got caught, which can happen to everyone. But up till he got caught, we didn't see either fighter mount any sort of offensive. If the fight was longer and we saw Junior's full package as a fighter, then perhaps I would agree with the betting odds. But right now, it would appear that Velasquez has a much stronger fight game than Dos Santos.

Velasquez has strong striking (though perhaps not as strong as JDS), phenomenal wrestling and ground control. Junior on the other hand, all we really know is that he's got great striking (in particular ridiculous timing and combinations). If Velasquez doesn't get caught and it becomes an all out dogfight between the two, I believe Velasquez will in.

I believe Velasquez is the safer bet.